Executive Summary

The state of travel – and the way people move around the world – will change dramatically in the coming decades as global priorities shift and new technologies become available. Airports will be core drivers of industrywide change, while themselves being transformed in the process.

Airports are, after all, where air travel journeys begin and end.

So, what will an airport’s purpose be in 2030, 2040, and 2050? What should leaders in the industry do to build foundations that maintain and foster global connectivity while enhancing competitiveness? What technologies need to be prioritized? And what steps must be taken to ensure innovation and change flourish in a way that helps rather than hinders surrounding communities?

Airports already play an important role in the community – at both local and global levels – and their influence will only increase as the aviation industry grows. The global commercial aviation fleet is expected to expand by 33%, to more than 36,000 aircraft by 2033, according to an Oliver Wyman analysis. Meanwhile, Airports Council International (ACI) World predicts an average annual growth of 5.8% in passenger traffic between 2022 and 2040. By 2040, more than 19 billion passengers will pass through world airports each year. This report explores:

• The trends that will shape the airports of 2030, 2040, and 2050
  
• What airports will look like in 2030, 2040, and 2050
• What airport leaders, industry and governments can do to pave a successful and sustainable way forward

To answer these critical questions, Oliver Wyman, ACI World, and the Sustainable Tourism Global Center identified four airport types that generally categorize an airport’s purpose and outlook:

• The City Airport: central urban location, typically servicing business travelers and short-haul commuters
• The Global Hub Connector: fans transit passengers out to the world while also serving a wide local catchment area
• The Cargo Champion: a major enabler of logistics and the movement of goods
• The Leisure Gateway: an airport that serves a tourist destination

Interviews were conducted with 18 chief executives spanning all four airport types to identify their unique needs and visions for the future.

Whilst each airport type has a different starting point, purpose, and development journey, it became clear when talking to the leaders that there are universal trends. Using these common threads, five megatrends that will shape the industry’s future were identified:

• Achieving Net Zero
• Technological Innovation
• Intermodal Connectivity
• The Changing Workforce
• The Passenger Experience Revolution

This report specifies challenges and opportunities across the five megatrends and identifies what airport leaders, regulators, and other decision-makers should prioritize to allow for sustainable industry growth from decade to decade.

Five Megatrends Affecting the Future of Airports

Achieving Net Zero

A key factor affecting the evolution of airports is achieving net zero. In 2021, representatives of global aviation industry associations committed to achieving net‑zero carbon emissions by 2050. To meet this goal, the industry will need to improve energy efficiency and transition to zero‑carbon energy and fuel sources. They will need the help of regulatory authorities in this process.

Decarbonization, the reduction of carbon emissions, is also a key investor and customer issue. Institutional lenders prefer to fund organizations that have strong environmental, social, and governance (ESG) programs in place, and Gen Z and millennial passengers are showing increasing concern for ESG models. ESG efforts resonate with passengers, with 66% saying they were more likely to purchase from an airline that had enhanced its sustainability efforts.

In 2008, aviation became the first industry to adopt a global, sector-wide climate action goal. And in October 2021, the global aviation industry declared it would achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 (supporting the Paris Agreement goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared with pre-industrial levels). Across the board, the air transport sector contributes around 2% of total global carbon emissions. The airport sector specifically is responsible for only a small slice of this, accounting for just 2%-5% of total aviation emissions.

Even though the airport sector contributes a relatively low share of global emissions, it is prioritizing achieving net zero because it recognizes its role as a key enabler in reducing the carbon footprint of the entire aviation system. Facilitating the availability of alternative fuel sources to air operators will become crucial. Increasingly, airports will become energy hubs and energy producers to supplement the resources available on the national grid level and ensure the availability of green energy. Airports will have to take concerted measures to reduce energy consumption across their ecosystem and utilize negative emissions technologies by either relying on natural processes or employing dedicated technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS).

Technological Innovation

Advances in biometrics, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), 3D printing, and automation will disrupt traditional airport operating models and transform the customer experience while also enhancing efficiency. Progressively more travelers are embracing digitization, with 45% of air travel passengers saying they are ready to drop paper passports for digital identities.

While AI and other technologies will be used to automate predictable processes, our human resources will be mobilized to manage and humanize exceptions. This shift will require airports of the future to fully embrace digitization and innovation across cargo and passenger operations.

The deployment of technology will provide the opportunity to rethink the internal design and layout of airports, as allowances are made for “On-the-Move” passenger processing, with no or little stopping points.

The enormous potential of technology will not be realized without alignment and collaboration between regulators and the industry on data sharing. Maximizing the value of new technologies requires airports, regulators, and other members of the travel ecosystem to design and operate according to open architecture that allows seamless data sharing across multiple stakeholders, while maintaining safety and security.

Intermodal Connectivity

Airport hubs will remain vital parts of the communities they serve as providers of connectivity to their region and drivers of economic growth. As such, intermodal connectivity at both city and regional levels will be key to facilitating the movement of people and goods.

Wider societal mobility trends, including electrification and automation of vehicles, will impact airports and require coordination and collaboration with public transit agencies to develop integrated, green-transit strategies.

Disaggregated models will also emerge, with specialized terminals aiming to reduce congestion and inefficiencies. In the future, passengers could for instance travel through a fully seamless transportation system providing dedicated access to airports from city centers.

The deployment of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) concepts, providing connectivity from city centers to airports, will be fully integrated into the modern multi-modal transportation hub. These will likely connect onwards to ultra‑high‑speed rail networks, providing additional inter-regional connectivity options.

The Changing Workforce

At present, approximately 54% of the 11.3 million people working in the aviation industry work in airports, amounting to 3.9% of the total travel and tourism industry (289 million people). Labor shortages that began in the wake of COVID-19 persist within the aviation industry, and they threaten to limit the ability to meet the growing demand for travel.

Looking ahead, as AI and other technologies transform airport operations, the workforce’s roles will bifurcate, and required skills will be more specialized: passenger-facing workers will have to upgrade their customer service skills, whilst airport operations staff will need new engineering, digital, cybersecurity, and IT skills.

In addition to shifts in the skills required to ensure the competitiveness of airports, the industry will also need to prioritize attracting and incentivizing the diverse and multi‑tasking workforce that is Gen Z. In this context, collaboration with academia will be necessary to create interest in the aviation industry, facilitate the recruitment of sufficient numbers of aviation workers to cater to future demands, and ensure workers have the right future‑proofed skills.

The Passenger Experience Revolution

Going forward, the passenger experience will be customized, on-demand, contactless, and efficient. The digitization of airports will enable a tailored end-to-end journey through the airport and will create new retail and commercial revenue opportunities.

Airports and airlines will offer personalized baggage drop-off and pick-up options, with the intent that passengers will no longer need to travel to the airport with their baggage. For example, luggage will be sent to the airport from home or hotel before departure through luggage pickup and checking services. Passengers will use personal devices and integrated travel apps to manage every aspect of their journey and consumer experience, from reserving a table at a restaurant to accessing duty-free purchases. Airports will offer services to customers at every point of their journey, as well as targeted promotions. However, these improvements in customer experience can only be achieved through data availability and open exchange.

Beyond digital innovation, physical spaces will need to be designed and transformed within airports to accommodate passenger demands. For instance, airport lounges are growing in popularity, and airlines are requesting that facilities be upgraded in terms of size and customer experience by providing new experiences such as cinemas, pools, or virtual‑reality gaming options. The continued expansion of airports into “aerotropolises,” or airport cities, will provide customers with a host of interrelated activities on‑site or nearby.

The transformation of passenger processing will drive a significant change in the internal layout of airport terminals where the future line of demarcation between airside and landside is expected to be very different from today. The reduction in check-in counters and security screening queues will provide new opportunities for commercial retail and relaxation spaces in terminals.

Four Airport Types

City Airport

The City Airport serves major urban centers, providing connectivity and acting as a gateway for business, leisure, and family travel. These airports are best viewed as part of the public transport system: one of their functions is to be an intermodal point to other vehicle types. This type needs to be cutting edge when it comes to ease of use as an airport.

Given their central location, the leaders of this type have a strong awareness of and sensitivity to the impact of factors such as noise and other types of pollution, and they work closely with local communities to mitigate these risks. These airports are often capacity-constrained, particularly in terms of options for infrastructure development. While City Airports in Europe are relatively mature, the executives interviewed believe that City Airports in Asia and the Middle East will be growth engines for regional travel in the coming decades.

Global Hub Connector

The Global Hub Connector type has a dual focus on transit passengers as well as travelers within a wide local catchment area of the airport. This gives rise to a strong need for intermodal connectivity to population centers, high-quality customer experience, and smooth and efficient processing. In the coming decades, this type will continue to play an important role in connecting passengers across the globe. Technology and smart design will allow global hub connectors to mitigate congestion and introduce seamless journeys.